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Above all, do no harm
Natural History, Oct, 1998 by Stephen Jay Gould
Callinicus contains an outstanding example of each error, and I rest my case for moral restraint here. Haldane does consider the argument that further development of chemical and biological weapons might prompt an investigation into even more powerful technologies of destruction-in particular, to unleashing the forces of the atom. But he dismisses this argument on scientific grounds of impossible achievement:
Of course, if we could utilize the forces
which we now know to exist inside the
atom, we should have such capacities for
destruction that I do not know of any
agency other than divine intervention which
would save humanity from complete and
peremptory annihilation .... [But] we
cannot utilize subatomic phenomena ....
We cannot make apparatus small enough to
disintegrate or fuse atomic nuclei .... We
can only bombard them with particles of
which perhaps one in a million hit, which
is like firing keys at a safe-door from a
machine gun a mile away in an attempt to
open it .... We know very little about the
structure of the atom and almost nothing
about how to modify it. And the prospect
of constructing such an apparatus seems to
me to be so remote that, when some
successor of mine is lecturing to a party
spending a holiday on the moon, it will
still be an unsolved (though not, I think,
an ultimately unsolvable) problem.
To which, we need only reply: Hiroshima, 1945; Mr. Armstrong on the Moon, 1969. And we are still here, in an admittedly precarious atomic world-thanks to moral and political restraint.
But the even greater danger of arrogant and "rational" predictions unwittingly based on unrecognized prejudice led Haldane to the silliest statement he ever made--one that might be deemed socially vicious if our laughter did not induce a more generous mood. Haldane tries to forecast the revised style of warfare that mustard gas must impose upon future conflicts. He claims that some people have a natural immunity, differently distributed among our racial groups. He holds that 20 percent of whites, but 80 percent of blacks, are unaffected by the gas. Haldane then constructs a truly dotty scenario for future gas warfare: vanguards of black troops will lead the attack; German forces, with less access to this aspect of human diversity, might be at a disadvantage, but their superior chemical knowledge should see them through, and balances should therefore be maintained:
It seems, then, that mustard gas would
enable an army to gain ground with jar less
killed on either side than the methods used
in the late War, and would tend to
establish a war of movement leading to a
fairly rapid decision, as in the campaigns of
the past. It would not upset the present
balance of power, Germany5 chemical
industry being counterposed by French
negro troops. Indians [that is, East Indians
available to British forces] may be expected
to be nearly as immune as negroes.
But now Haldane sees a hole in his argument. He steps back, breathes deeply, and finds a solution. Thank God for that 20 percent immunity among whites!