India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal

Military Review,  Sept-Oct, 2003  by Charles E. Newbegin

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Ashley J. Tellis, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 2001, 885 pages, $40.00.

India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal is the product of an extensive research project conducted by Project Air Force (PAF). PAF, the brainchild of General H.H. Arnold, is a RAND-Air Force partnership that has been in existence since 1946. PAF is the only Air Force federally funded research and development center not involved in building hardware. PAF's mission is to gather information for the purpose of conducting studies and analyses on a collage of subjects that might affect the Air Force. PAF has an extensive list of published topics that are available for purchase (in book format) or that can be downloaded for free onto a computer. (See <www. rand.org/paf/about.html>.) The reader must be aware that RAND is a nonprofit institution, and while it helps improve policy-and decisionmaking, it does not always reflect the opinions or policies of its sponsors.

Contributor Ashley J. Tellis is an Indian-born American currently serving as special adviser to the American Ambassador to India. His main objective in conducting his research is to determine India's nuclear posture; that is, if it is a "nuclear-capable state" or a "nuclear-weapon power," and how it got there.

Tellis logically organizes his work into six chapters that identify the factors affecting India's choices, analyzes five specific nuclear end states that India has debated for years, describes India's most likely course of action for the next 20 years, and examines the operational capabilities of India's desired nuclear posture. Tellis summarizes his exhaustive research with observations on the consequences of expected changes in India's nuclear posture in regard to Pakistan and China.

In the end, Tellis does not entirely agree with the U.S. Government's assessment that India is a nuclear-weapon state. He feels that India is undecided on where it wants to go with its nuclear strategy. India faces internal and external pressures to control and disarm its nuclear capabilities and expansion, yet it is constantly faced with regional stability challenges in regard to its nuclear-capable, armed neighbors (China and Pakistan). Tellis's end comment is that for a successful future in U.S.-India relations, the two countries must develop a realistic strategic vision in which the two states' competing interests can be reconciled--sound advice for today's strategymakers.

Strategymakers might find this book daunting because of its length; its extensive, detailed footnotes; and its enormous bibliography, but students looking for references will greatly appreciate this level of detail. I highly recommend this book; it is an outstanding source of information about the future of India and the effect its decisions will have on the world.

MAJ Charles E. Newbegin, USA, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas

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