Decision navigation: coping with 21st-century challenges in tactical decisionmaking

Military Review,  Sept-Oct, 2003  by Dennis T. Gyllensporre

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Recognition-primed decisionmaking. Recognition-primed decisionmaking is a decisionmaking method based on the satisficing concept. The decision process has three steps. At the situational-recognition phase, the decisionmaker recognizes and classifies the situation based on previous experiences. In the serial-option evaluation phase, the decisionmaker evaluates alternatives until he finds a satisfactory one. Alternative actions are queued according to typicality. The first action evaluated is the most typical. In the final mental-simulation phase, the decisionmaker mentally simulates actions and potential outcomes and implements or modifies them. (61) This decisionmaking method is similar to the cognitive process and is consistent with the paradigms discussed.

Intuition. Decisionmaking can be divided into two categories. The first is analytical decisionmaking, which is based on a logical method and a defined way to quantify results, such as the MDMP. The second is intuitive decisionmaking, which is based on the commander's instinct, such as recognition-primed decisionmaking. The more experienced the commander, the more cognitive scripts he will be equipped with and the faster and more accurate his decisions will be. The commander's scripts drive his intuition. Successful commanders like Fredrick the Great and Napoleon recognized the importance of intuition as a key factor for successful leaders. (62) Writer Michael Handel argues that the "successful general is not the one who carefully implements his original plans ... but rather the one who intuitively 'reads' the chaos on the battlefield well enough to take advantage of passing opportunities." (63) He adds: "Since it is impossible to weigh all of the relevant factors for even the simplest decision in war, it is the military leader's intuition (coup d'oeil) that must ultimately guide him in effective decisionmaking." (64)

The Vicksburg Campaign: Successful Decision Navigation

Major General Ulysses S. Grant's triumph in the Vicksburg Campaign (1862-1863) illustrates the key elements in decision navigation. The Union identified the Mississippi River as a Confederate center of gravity, an artery for commercial movements, and a mode for transporting troops and supplies. Consequently, the Confederates fortified decisive points along the river. In early 1862, the defense at Vicksburg, Mississippi, was the major obstacle to Union control of the Mississippi River. The railway hub in Jackson, Mississippi, east of Vicksburg increased the significance of the area.

After the Union Navy failed to seize Vicksburg, a land effort became necessary. Grant took command. His task was to clear the Mississippi River of the Confederate resistance that Lieutenant General John C. Pemberton's troops imposed. Planning the campaign involved myriad geographical factors, including the Mississippi Delta region, streams of various navigabilities, steep banks, and bluffs northeast of the city. (65) The complexity proved to be too great to capture in a grand design plan. From November 1862 to March 1863, Grant launched four unsuccessful attacks. Despite repeated failures and "navigation" among concepts, Grant kept the final destination in mind and was determined to accomplish the mission--to seize Vicksburg.