Decision navigation: coping with 21st-century challenges in tactical decisionmaking

Military Review,  Sept-Oct, 2003  by Dennis T. Gyllensporre

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In contrast to classical decision theories, the focus is not on choosing among alternatives but on finding an acceptable solution. In 1959, Charles E. Lindblom introduced "The Science of Muddling Through," arguing that complex problems cannot be solved by traditional analytical methods, (53) The traditional method, which is absolute, builds a complete plan from the beginning by identifying and managing all variables that can affect performance. (54) But there are too many variables and not enough money or time to allow a full examination of all of them and their interrelationships. Instead, a satisficing method should be used in which a COA that satisfies requirements hut does not optimize them is outlined and the number of variables is limited. This method allows many small, incremental changes in a short time. Author Paul J. Harig says, "The most common and intuitively reasonable thing is to make an incremental decision based on what has happened up to that point." (55)

Cognitive aspects. From an individual's perspective, the act of decisionmaking will not change. There are three reasons for this. First, basic human characteristics will remain essentially unchanged. The human mind develops slowly. Studies shows that the average IQ gains three points every decade. (56) Second, the concerns a commander has prior to an important decision usually do not change. He will ask himself, "Is this the right time? Will we be successful?" General Dwight D. Eisenhower's anxiety before launching Operation Overlord during World War II was probably similar to General Norman Schwarzkopf's before initiating the ground war daring Operation Desert Storm. (57) Future commanders will probably have the same concerns. Third, the cognitive decisionmaking process is not going to change.

Cognitive decisionmaking in dynamic, time-constrained environments begins with the receipt of new information. Commanders are constantly bombarded with an enormous amount of information, (58) Depending on the commander's focus, cognitive capacity, and experience, specific sets of information will catch his attention. One of the commander's sensory memories encodes these informational elements and his short-term (or working) memory transfers and processes them. (59) When the new information interacts with the commander's knowledge; that is, his long-term memory, the commander creates new tactical knowledge and situational awareness.

The levels of uncertainty correspond to the three cognitive levels of awareness: perceiving the information, comprehending the current situation, and projecting a future status. Knowledge is stored in the long-term memory as schemata (objects, events, and situations), which the working memory combines into scripts to represent sequences of events or actions. (60) The more experienced the commander, the more scripts he possesses to apply to the situation.

As he processes new information, the commander incrementally develops situational awareness. He then uses his working memory to project a future situation based on a set of scripts (possible solutions). Once he finds a satisfying script, he has solved the problem. Cognitive decisionmaking is incremental, intuitive, and satisficing.